The Indian Ocean game

The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the end of bi-polar world politics ushered in an era of dominance and supremacy of the United States which remained the sole superpower in the world but gone are the days of supremacy of the US which went unchallenged until the world structure started to take a new shape.The ‘Multiple polar world ‘had arrived.

The direct Impact would be felt in Asia where the former colonial states had by now grown and were achieving a foothold in the world. Dubbed as the ‘Asian century’, India and China had become two of the fastest growing economies in the world. The Indian Ocean soon gained importance as it became the important region that fed the two fastest growing economies of the world with Oil from the Middle East. India stands to be a more advantageous power compared to China in this region given its central location in South Asia. China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean is restricted to the ships that it deploys for Anti piracy operation.

SLOC’s: India and China

Sea lines of communication remain Vital for all the countries in the world but in the Indian Ocean region the SLOC’s bear a distinct mark of competition. India, China and The United States all seem to make their presence felt in this region. The US base in Diego Garcia remains critical for the United States of America for the very purpose   that it acts as a link between its command in the Middle East and pacific.

But the Chinese have realized the need to improve its ties with countries in the Indian Ocean region for the very fact that without this its supply lines of oil stand to be threatened. Hence from the supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf the Chinese have built a port at the land of its all weather friend Pakistan at Gwadar creating Sinophobeia in the minds at New Delhi, China has if not legitimately built ports surrounding  India at Hambantota  in Srilanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Sittwe in Myanmar. The vulnerability which China has is at the Straits of Melaka a region that is very essential for the transit of oil to its Final phase towards China.

China has over time raised concerns over the vulnerability it has at the Strait.The so called ‘String of pearls Strategy’ has raised fears in Washington about the possible adventure of China in the Indian Ocean region. Hence, South East Asia becomes the missing link between China and the rest of its pearls in the Indian Ocean region. This fear was raised in China, which it termed as the ‘Melaka dilemma’ the possible inability and vulnerability of China in Melaka.

The town of Melaka,Malaysia and in the distance the
strait of Melaka

India’s inroads into Southeast Asia have been gradual since its inception of the Look east policy a landmark policy to improve the ties with the Countries in Southeast Asia. The Indian navy has a strong presence near the Strait as India’s Andaman and Nicobar territory lies just 90 nautical miles from the tip of Aceh. India has housed a joint command and patrols its maritime Boundary with Indonesia. India’s engagement with ASEAN has raised some tensions in Beijing which considers this region as its backyard.

The Melaka Dilemma and China’s alternatives

China’s tensions with its oil supply through Melaka has brought it to terms with its position in the Indian Ocean region a vulnerability to safeguard the long journey of its energy Supplies. Hence Myanmar (Burma) forms an Important part of the supply route where china could transfer its energy supply through its two Oil and Gas pipelines that lead to Kunming in China. It also has reached deals with Central Asian countries which have extended it pipelines towards China and adding to it has also concluded a deal with Russia to have oil supplied to its region. The port at Gwadar would also be important for China as oil could be shipped towards the port and taken by road towards the Karakorum highway to China.

China proposed to build the Kra canal in Thailand that would create a Canal that would go through Southern Thailand and eventually bypass the Strait of Melaka. This would be adding to the worry as it would open up another front towards China as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands would be directly at the other end of the canal.

Peaceful rise and The Chinese strategy

China’s peaceful rise concept was seen as a surprise when it came up. Its rapid military modernization after this concept which China argues is for its self defense and is not threatening could be debated as its claims the whole of South China Sea, which has brought it into conflict with many nations in Southeast Asia. Hence its modernization of the Navy and recent achievement of an aircraft carrier have made nations wonder whether its forces are destined for the Indian Ocean which China sees as away to diversify and develop into a two Ocean strategy. But the deployment of its aircraft carrier to protect it energy supply is highly doubtful as to reach the Indian Ocean it needs to pass through the Melaka Straits and the countries in the Straits have always objected of any country’s presence in the Strait. Hence China’s new Aircraft carrier seems mostly to be deployed in the Pacific against China’s possible threat over an aggression over the issue of Taiwan.

India’s requirements

India seems helpless when it comes to energy supplies as the Sea bound supply remains the only option. India has been boxed into South Asia by Pakistan and China losing access to Central Asia through the narrow border which India shared with Afghanistan. Hence India’s Engagement with Afghanistan could play a critical role in the transit from Central Asia through to Iran at the port of Chabahar and then towards India. India’s engagements with the Middle East still remain important. The other major Country lies in India’s East ‘Myanmar’. India’s engagement with Myanmar came naturally as its proximity to India’s Northeast region and its abundant Natural resources make it a suitable choice for India but years of Sanctions and neglect by the west have pushed Myanmar towards China and its benefits have been of most for China. India’s dilemma to deal with Myanmar owing to its democratic stance has made India lose a lot to Myanmar. For India it remains one of the closest sources of energy resources.

India should use its significant location in the Indian Ocean region to its full benefit. The growing presence of China will certainly be a challenge but India’s Strategic area should be to deal with the nations of the Indian Ocean region as much as possible because the whole region is Important for India in terms of its trade and off course Oil. To make a simpler picture India needs to engage with Nations in Southeast Asia and strengthen its relations with ASEAN which will help India and ASEAN deal with the common rise of China, which seems to be playing the peaceful rise card but sounding different Signals towards various countries especially the United States. India needs to effectively deal with Myanmar because Myanmar remains a concern for India, with its growing closeness to China, effective engagement with Myanmar is required so that there are channels of communication open and India could gradually bring about a change in Myanmar this can only be possible if we can create Myanmar’s dependence on India.

Coco Islands were leased to China where it has set up listening posts and it is effective to monitor India’s eastern Coast such events are what India worries about. The new elected government in Myanmar is again just a creation of the Military junta which still stands as the most powerful entity; India has no choice but to deal with Myanmar unless we do Myanmar will become a satellite of the Chinese,which will not be in any ones Interest

India’s role as a balancer in Asia has drawn India closer to the United States thereby bringing China as a common area of confrontation for both the countries which are strong in this region hence the course is set for the future dominance over the Indian Ocean region, the Chinese strategy and objectives seem to be harmless as of now but in the near future as the gap slowly but steadily becomes narrow China’s influence will just seem to grow and India would have to evolve a robust strategy in terms of its development of Naval power in the region in order to catch up with what will in the future of the Great game of the Indian Ocean.

India-Indonesia : Long lost friends



The Indonesian president being welcomed by
the Indian Prime minister



The visit of the Indonesian president Susilo Bamang Yudhoyono takes our memory back to the times when India as a nation was trying to find its place in the world. The largest democracy in the world today, celebrated its big day and entry into the world stage with the presence of one of the greatest leaders of Non alignment and the co founder indonesian Leader Sukerno who became the cheif guest of India for the  first Republic day in 1950.

  The relationship that India shares with Indonesia has been forged culturally over centuries. India's influences have shaped Indonesian way of life and Language and much to our amusement Indonesia still has over nine percent of its population which practices Hinduism.

 The ties between Indonesia and India went a bit on the down during the cold war era. Indonesia's anti communist uprisings brought it into close conflict with the countries such as China with which Indonesia cut off diplomatic ties until 1990.India with its socialist bent of mind signed a treaty of friendship with the Soviet Union which again signaled our intent as to which direction we would like to go by. But still India remained firm on not formally taking any sides.

The transformation of Indonesia into a gradual and responsible democracy happened eventually and India and China's growth in the world brought the world and Indonesia to a stage where Indonesia’s gradual growth would be followed by how ASEAN and Indonesia in ASEAN would deal with the two emerging giants of Asia.

India's investments in Indonesia are poised to grow to 15 billion dollars from 12 billion in 2010 and both the countries expect to reach a volume of trade to 25 billion dollars by 2015.India could benefit immensely from Indonesia. Broadly analyzing we could assess them using 4 broad points.

 Economic-Indonesia has an abundance of natural resources its major exports include oil & Natural gas, coal, Timber among its top exports .For India Palm oil and coal remain a top import from Indonesia. The country is supposed to have the largest reserve of Natural gas in the Asia Pacific region which could be beneficial for India as it searches for alternate regions to secure its energy supply. Indonesia also remains the world’s largest Thermal coal exporter and 47 percent of coal from Indonesia is sent to India.

 Political benefit -India and Indonesia are two large countries and democracies with multiple dimensions and problems which are of similar nature and Indonesia's gradual transfer to a more democratic set up will help it in founding stronger democracy and democratic values and ideas from India. Being the Largest country in Southeast Asia Indonesia has a strong role to play in the politics in ASEAN for which it would hold the Chair this year.

   India could use this opportunity to realize its goals to achieve the maximum benefit with ASEAN countries.

Strategic Interests - All the SLOC's or sea lines of communication pass through Indonesia (Straits of Melaka, Sunda, lombok and Makassar).Hence a good will gesture with Indonesia,India conducts naval exercises and patroling in the Andaman sea where India and Indonesia share a maritime boundary.

 India enjoys one advantage that is the lack of Chinese naval presence in Southeast Asia but India's initiative with these countries has enabled India to understand the important strategically prominent role which India could achieve in this region as a great power in Asia .

 Indonesia could play a great role in the protection of the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) against terrorist attacks launched from Indonesia into Indian territory because the proximity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is a mere 90 nautical mile from the tip of the Island of Sumetra.Indonesia and India have set up a joint working group on terrorism and also signed an extradition treaty.

The other giant of Asia and India's benefit to Indonesia

Economically the China -ASEAN FTA (CAFTA) has taken the trade between the two regions to a great new level. The view in Indonesia is that the trade pact led to the dumping of Chinese goods in the market and the alternate trading partner large enough in Asia would be India. The Indonesians are also the same as they face fears from an aggressive China claiming the whole of South China sea and its waters bringing them into conflict with Indonesia.

 In August,2010 Indonesia's exports to India reached six billion dollars and in just nine months of 2010 Indonesia recorded a trade surplus which means that Indonesia also gained in its trade with India. Indonesia compliments both the countries as they are hunting for resources to fuel their high rate of growth. The benefits of India's investments in Indonesia benefit the economy and more importantly the people. Indian companies are to develop two airports at Bali and Java and also railway lines. To increase the people to people contact India has announced to issue Visa on Arrival schemes to Indonesians and have student exchanges and direct flights linking both the nations.

  This use of soft power in Indonesia will further foster the relations between both the countries. Southeast Asia will become a playing ground for both India and China in which the role of Indonesia will be substantial as it emerges as one of the leading nations in the developing world and the ASEAN region.

 It is apt to conclude in the words of Sukarno who said, "Your country and your people are linked to us by ties of blood and culture which date back to the very beginning of time". The cultural linkages and strong bonds that India shares with Indonesia are what makes us natural partners or just better to say two lost friends who need to catch up.