The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the end of bi-polar world politics ushered in an era of dominance and supremacy of the United States which remained the sole superpower in the world but gone are the days of supremacy of the US which went unchallenged until the world structure started to take a new shape.The ‘Multiple polar world ‘had arrived.
The direct Impact would be felt in Asia where the former colonial states had by now grown and were achieving a foothold in the world. Dubbed as the ‘Asian century’, India and China had become two of the fastest growing economies in the world. The Indian Ocean soon gained importance as it became the important region that fed the two fastest growing economies of the world with Oil from the Middle East. India stands to be a more advantageous power compared to China in this region given its central location in South Asia. China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean is restricted to the ships that it deploys for Anti piracy operation.
SLOC’s: India and China
Sea lines of communication remain Vital for all the countries in the world but in the Indian Ocean region the SLOC’s bear a distinct mark of competition. India, China and The United States all seem to make their presence felt in this region. The US base in Diego Garcia remains critical for the United States of America for the very purpose that it acts as a link between its command in the Middle East and pacific.
But the Chinese have realized the need to improve its ties with countries in the Indian Ocean region for the very fact that without this its supply lines of oil stand to be threatened. Hence from the supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf the Chinese have built a port at the land of its all weather friend Pakistan at Gwadar creating Sinophobeia in the minds at New Delhi, China has if not legitimately built ports surrounding India at Hambantota in Srilanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Sittwe in Myanmar. The vulnerability which China has is at the Straits of Melaka a region that is very essential for the transit of oil to its Final phase towards China.
China has over time raised concerns over the vulnerability it has at the Strait.The so called ‘String of pearls Strategy’ has raised fears in Washington about the possible adventure of China in the Indian Ocean region. Hence, South East Asia becomes the missing link between China and the rest of its pearls in the Indian Ocean region. This fear was raised in China, which it termed as the ‘Melaka dilemma’ the possible inability and vulnerability of China in Melaka.
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| The town of Melaka,Malaysia and in the distance the strait of Melaka |
India’s inroads into Southeast Asia have been gradual since its inception of the Look east policy a landmark policy to improve the ties with the Countries in Southeast Asia. The Indian navy has a strong presence near the Strait as India’s Andaman and Nicobar territory lies just 90 nautical miles from the tip of Aceh. India has housed a joint command and patrols its maritime Boundary with Indonesia. India’s engagement with ASEAN has raised some tensions in Beijing which considers this region as its backyard.
The Melaka Dilemma and China’s alternatives
China’s tensions with its oil supply through Melaka has brought it to terms with its position in the Indian Ocean region a vulnerability to safeguard the long journey of its energy Supplies. Hence Myanmar (Burma) forms an Important part of the supply route where china could transfer its energy supply through its two Oil and Gas pipelines that lead to Kunming in China. It also has reached deals with Central Asian countries which have extended it pipelines towards China and adding to it has also concluded a deal with Russia to have oil supplied to its region. The port at Gwadar would also be important for China as oil could be shipped towards the port and taken by road towards the Karakorum highway to China.
China proposed to build the Kra canal in Thailand that would create a Canal that would go through Southern Thailand and eventually bypass the Strait of Melaka. This would be adding to the worry as it would open up another front towards China as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands would be directly at the other end of the canal.
Peaceful rise and The Chinese strategy
China’s peaceful rise concept was seen as a surprise when it came up. Its rapid military modernization after this concept which China argues is for its self defense and is not threatening could be debated as its claims the whole of South China Sea, which has brought it into conflict with many nations in Southeast Asia. Hence its modernization of the Navy and recent achievement of an aircraft carrier have made nations wonder whether its forces are destined for the Indian Ocean which China sees as away to diversify and develop into a two Ocean strategy. But the deployment of its aircraft carrier to protect it energy supply is highly doubtful as to reach the Indian Ocean it needs to pass through the Melaka Straits and the countries in the Straits have always objected of any country’s presence in the Strait. Hence China’s new Aircraft carrier seems mostly to be deployed in the Pacific against China’s possible threat over an aggression over the issue of Taiwan.
India’s requirements
India seems helpless when it comes to energy supplies as the Sea bound supply remains the only option. India has been boxed into South Asia by Pakistan and China losing access to Central Asia through the narrow border which India shared with Afghanistan. Hence India’s Engagement with Afghanistan could play a critical role in the transit from Central Asia through to Iran at the port of Chabahar and then towards India. India’s engagements with the Middle East still remain important. The other major Country lies in India’s East ‘Myanmar’. India’s engagement with Myanmar came naturally as its proximity to India’s Northeast region and its abundant Natural resources make it a suitable choice for India but years of Sanctions and neglect by the west have pushed Myanmar towards China and its benefits have been of most for China. India’s dilemma to deal with Myanmar owing to its democratic stance has made India lose a lot to Myanmar. For India it remains one of the closest sources of energy resources.
India should use its significant location in the Indian Ocean region to its full benefit. The growing presence of China will certainly be a challenge but India’s Strategic area should be to deal with the nations of the Indian Ocean region as much as possible because the whole region is Important for India in terms of its trade and off course Oil. To make a simpler picture India needs to engage with Nations in Southeast Asia and strengthen its relations with ASEAN which will help India and ASEAN deal with the common rise of China, which seems to be playing the peaceful rise card but sounding different Signals towards various countries especially the United States. India needs to effectively deal with Myanmar because Myanmar remains a concern for India, with its growing closeness to China, effective engagement with Myanmar is required so that there are channels of communication open and India could gradually bring about a change in Myanmar this can only be possible if we can create Myanmar’s dependence on India.
Coco Islands were leased to China where it has set up listening posts and it is effective to monitor India’s eastern Coast such events are what India worries about. The new elected government in Myanmar is again just a creation of the Military junta which still stands as the most powerful entity; India has no choice but to deal with Myanmar unless we do Myanmar will become a satellite of the Chinese,which will not be in any ones Interest
India’s role as a balancer in Asia has drawn India closer to the United States thereby bringing China as a common area of confrontation for both the countries which are strong in this region hence the course is set for the future dominance over the Indian Ocean region, the Chinese strategy and objectives seem to be harmless as of now but in the near future as the gap slowly but steadily becomes narrow China’s influence will just seem to grow and India would have to evolve a robust strategy in terms of its development of Naval power in the region in order to catch up with what will in the future of the Great game of the Indian Ocean.
